全球數據：經濟衰退可能接近尾聲

The global downturn appeared close to a bottom yesterday after manufacturing figures from across the world suggested the worldwide recession was running out of steam in all big economies.

全球經濟低迷似乎已接近底部。昨天全球各地公布的制造業數據顯示，世界范圍的衰退在所有大型經濟體均已接近尾聲。

The welcome news comes after nine months of the sharpest contraction in global manufacturing output since the second world war and a dramatic plunge in world trade as buyers of capital goods and consumer durables effectively went on strike.

在這些可喜的消息傳來之前9個月，全球制造業產出出現了第二次世界大戰以來最劇烈的收縮，世界貿易額驟降，資本貨物和耐用消費品的買家實際上都進入“罷工”狀態。

Stuart Green, global economist with HSBC, said the signs from around the world indicated that “a spell in the financial wilderness now looks less likely for the major economies . . . with a slowly improving cyclical picture factored in for the rest of 2009 and 2010 across many regions”.

匯豐銀行(HSBC)全球經濟學家斯圖爾特·格林(Stuart Green)指出，世界各地的跡象表明，“如今看起來主要經濟體不太可能出現一陣金融荒野時期……在許多地區，在2009年剩余時間和2010年經濟緩慢好轉的周期性圖景開始顯現”。

But he and policymakers around the world fear that the coming upturn will be neither durable nor strong.

但是，他和世界各地的決策者擔心，即將到來的經濟回升將既不能持久也不夠強勁。

The recovery in global manufacturing has come primarily because companies have sold off much of their accumulated stocks and are re-starting mothballed production lines. Once this temporary boost is completed, serious questions remain about the source of longer term demand to maintain the current momentum.

全球制造業的恢復，主要是因為企業已經出售了它們積累的大部分庫存，并重新啟動被封存的生產線。一旦這個臨時推動力完成，企業將依然要面對一個嚴肅的問題：維持目前勢頭所需的更長期需求來源在哪里？

The June data yesterday came from a series of surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, the area of the global economy hardest hit by the recession. Although the headline figures were positive only in China, the manufacturing output element of the data was positive in the US, the UK and Japan as well.

昨天發布的6月份數據來自對制造業部門采購經理的一系列調查，制造業是全球經濟中受衰退打擊最嚴重的領域。盡管只有中國的整體數據為正數，但美國、英國、日本的制造業產出數據也為正數。

譯者/力文