美聯儲副主席：貨幣政策繼續逐步正常化是適當的
美聯儲(Federal Reserve)一名高層政策制定者表示，從很多方面衡量，美國經濟處于自金融危機之前很久以來最健康的狀態。他重申了美國央行有意逐步提高短期利率。
Randal Quarles, the Fed’s vice-chairman for financial supervision, told a conference in Tokyo that growth has been showing more momentum since the second quarter of last year, and that unemployment is at its lowest levels since the 1960s apart from a brief period from 1999 to 2000.
美聯儲負責金融監管的副主席蘭德爾•夸爾斯(Randal Quarles，見文首照片)在東京的一個會議上表示，自去年第二季度以來，美國經濟增長顯示出更強勢頭，而失業率處于自上世紀60年代以來最低水平——除了從1999年到2000年的一段短暫時期以外。
“Against this economic backdrop, with a strong labour market and likely only temporary softness in inflation, I view it as appropriate that monetary policy should continue to be gradually normalised,” Mr Quarles said.
“在這樣的經濟大背景下，考慮到勞動力市場強勁，而通脹很可能只是暫時疲軟，我認為貨幣政策繼續逐步正?；沁m當的，”夸爾斯表示。
The Fed has been signalling an increased determination to lift short-term rates, with officials in their January meeting emphasising the need to “further” tighten policy. While the arrival of Jay Powell, the new Fed chairman, coincided with an outbreak of volatility in financial markets, central bankers have suggested the gyrations have not derailed their plans for higher rates.
美聯儲近來發出的信號表明，其越來越有決心提高短期利率，官員們在1月會議上強調需要“進一步”收緊政策。雖然美聯儲新主席杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)上任之際適逢金融市場陷入一輪波動，但央行官員們表示，市場波動并未影響他們的加息計劃。
One of the reasons for more increases is the added fiscal stimulus being injected into an economy that is already at full employment. In their latest rate-setting meeting at the end of January a number of Fed policymakers said that the effects of Congress’s $1.5tn tax-cutting package, while still uncertain, “might be somewhat larger in the near term than previously thought”.
進一步加息的理由之一是新增的財政刺激正在注入本已處于充分就業狀態的美國經濟。在1月底舉行的上一次利率制定會議上，美聯儲多名政策制定者表示，國會的1.5萬億美元減稅計劃的影響盡管仍不確定，但“在近期產生的影響可能比之前想象的要大一些”。
Extra public spending is set to add to the stimulus, potentially driving annual budget deficits beyond $1tn as soon as next year. After the Fed’s January meeting Congress agreed to lift caps on discretionary spending by $300bn over two years.
額外的公共支出將加大刺激力度，可能使年度預算赤字最早在明年就超過1萬億美元。在美聯儲1月會議后，美國國會同意在未來兩年將可自由支配支出的上限提高3000億美元。
Mr Quarles said that corporate spending was picking up and the tax reductions pushed through by Congress in December could add to the economy’s momentum. “It might be early, but it is possible that the investment drought that has afflicted the US economy for the past five years may finally be breaking,” said Mr Quarles in his speech.
夸爾斯表示，企業支出正在增加，而去年12月國會推動通過的減稅措施有望增強經濟勢頭。“也許現在說這話有點早，但過去五年來困擾美國經濟的投資‘旱季’可能終于即將結束，”夸爾斯在發言中表示。
“The tax and fiscal packages passed in recent months could help sustain the economy’s momentum in part by increasing demand, and also possibly by boosting the potential capacity of the economy by encouraging investment and supporting labour force participation.”
“最近幾個月通過的稅收和財政措施可能有助于維持經濟增長勢頭——在一定程度上是通過增加需求，還可能通過鼓勵投資和促進勞動力參與來提振經濟的潛在生產力。”
The more bullish assessments emerging from Fed officials will trigger speculation about its assessment of the level of the so-called neutral rate of interest — that is, the rate that neither stimulates the economy nor holds it back.
美聯儲官員們發表更為樂觀的評估將引發外界猜測：他們對于所謂的中性利率水平(既不會刺激經濟也不會阻礙經濟的利率)的評估會有什么變化?
In recent years the Fed has been pulling down its estimate of longer-run interest rate because it has become increasingly pessimistic about the economy’s potential. The median estimate in the Fed’s December forecast was for a longer-run interest rate of 2.8 per cent. Two years earlier its estimate was 3.5 per cent.
近年來，美聯儲不斷降低其對較長期利率的估測，因為它對美國經濟的潛力越來越悲觀。在美聯儲去年12月的預測中，對較長期利率作出的中位數估測是2.8%，而兩年之前的估測是3.5%。
But in an interview with the Financial Times in January, Bill Dudley, president of the New York Fed, argued that if the overhang from the financial crisis was easing it should lead to a higher neutral rate. Asked if that is already higher than people had been assuming, he said “it certainly could be” given stimulative fiscal policy and financial markets.
但紐約聯儲(New York Fed)主席比爾•達德利(Bill Dudley)在1月份接受英國《金融時報》采訪時提出，如果金融危機帶來的后遺癥緩解了，那應該導致更高的中性利率。在被問及這個數字是否已經高于人們假設的水平時，他表示，考慮到刺激性的財政政策和金融市場狀況，“肯定有這個可能”。
While Mr Quarles was relatively upbeat about the broad prospects for the US economy, he was more cautious about productivity, which helps drive a sustainable growth rate. “Why productivity growth has been so weak defies easy explanation. The weak pace of business investment is likely part of the story,” he said.
雖然夸爾斯對美國經濟的整體前景相對樂觀，但他在談到生產率時態度更為謹慎，生產率增長將有助于推動可持續增長率。“為什么生產率增長如此疲弱，這個問題不容易解釋。商業投資疲弱很可能是故事的一部分，”他表示。
