經合組織：債務上升“挑戰”發達國家

Developed nations face a rising tide of government debt that poses “a significant challenge” to budgets as interest rates increase around the world, the OECD has warned.

經濟合作與發展組織(OECD，以下簡稱“經合組織”)警告稱，發達國家面臨日益上升的政府債務，隨著世界各地利率上調，這些債務對其預算構成“重大挑戰”。

Low interest rates have helped sustain high levels of government debt and persistent budget deficits since the financial crisis, according to the OECD, but the “relatively favourable” sovereign funding environment “may not be a permanent feature of financial markets”.

經合組織稱，從金融危機爆發至今，低利率幫助各國政府維持高債務水平和持續的預算赤字，但“相對有利”的主權融資環境“可能并非金融市場的永久特征”。

Fatos Koc, senior policy analyst at the OECD, cautioned that most members of the organisation — sometimes dubbed the rich nations’ club — confront an “increasing refinancing burden from maturing debt, combined with continued budget deficits”.

經合組織有時被稱為“富國俱樂部”。經合組織的高級政策分析師法托什•科奇(Fatos Koc)告誡稱，該組織的大多數成員國面臨“債務到期帶來的日益加重的再融資負擔，再加上持續的預算赤字”。

The warning on the longer-term consequences of high public borrowing marks a shift in stance by the OECD, which as recently as November was praising countries for easing fiscal policy to help global growth.

對大規模公共借款的較長期后果發出警告，標志著經合組織的立場轉變。就在去年11月，該組織還在贊揚各國放寬財政政策以幫助全球增長。

In an Economic Outlook, published at that time, the Paris-based organisation said that “even a lasting increase in 10-year government bond yields of 1 percentage point . . . might worsen budget balances on average by only between 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent of GDP annually in the following three years”.

在當時發布的《經濟展望》(Economic Outlook)中，設在巴黎的經合組織表示，“就算10年期國債收益率持續上升1個百分點……預算平衡在接下來3年的年均惡化幅度也僅相當于國內生產總值(GDP)的0.1%至0.3%”。

But Ms Koc now argues that the wisdom of using fiscal measures as economic stimulus depends on an individual country’s budget position, and that it is “important to create strong fiscal roots in an economy while times are good”.

但現在科奇主張，利用財政措施作為經濟刺激手段是否明智，要看具體國家的預算處境，而“在形勢良好的時候，在經濟中建立強勁的財政根基很重要”。

The total stock of OECD countries’ sovereign debt has increased from $25tn in 2008 to more than $45tn this year. Debt to GDP ratios across the OECD averaged 73 per cent last year, and its members are set to borrow £10.5tn from the markets this year.

今年，經合組織成員國主權債務的總存量達到45萬億美元以上，遠高于2008年的25萬億美元。去年經合組織成員國的債務與GDP之比平均達到73%，而今年這些成員國將要從市場借入10.5萬億英鎊。

Because much of the debt raised in the aftermath of the financial crisis is set to mature in the coming years, developed nations will have to refinance 40 per cent of their total debt stock in the next three years, the OECD said.

經合組織表示，由于在金融危機過后借入的很大一部分債務將在未來幾年到期，發達國家需要在接下來3年對40%的存量債務進行再融資。